Top Football Ranking

Week 5 2019

Updated October 8, 2019

After upsets last week, we'll see how it shakes out. Early lines, a lot of apparently really close games from the model. Results in a lot of underdog picks. Three picks against the odds. Ran a second higher variability model shown in parentheses. Little difference in betting. Alternative model worse on bets this week.

Thursday MODEL Pick / SCORE MoneyLine Point Spread

Rams at Seahawks Rams by 1.9 (2.8) 29-30 X Rams +100 X -$100 Rams +1.0 Push 0

Sunday

Cardinals at Bengals Cardinals by 1.8 (2.6) 26-23 ✔ Cardinals +150 ✔ +$150 Cardinals +3.0 ✔ +$90.91

Falcons at Texans Texans by 10.7 (15.7) 32-53 ✔ Texans -230 ✔ +$43.48 Texans -5.0 ✔ +$90.91

Ravens at Steelers Ravens by 0.0 (0.1) 26-23 ✔ Steelers +165 X -$100 Steelers +3.5 ✔ +$90.91

Bills at Titans Titans by 0.4 (0.6) 14-07 X Bills +145 ✔ +$145 Bills +3.0 ✔ +$90.91

Bears at Raiders Bears by 8.4 (12.4) 21-24 X Bears -240 X -$100 Bears -6.0 X -$100

Jaguars at Panthers Panthers by 0.2 (0.3) 27-34 ✔ Jaguars +155 X -$100 Jaguars +3.5 X -$100

Vikings at Giants Vikings by 1.2 (1.8) 28-10 ✔ Giants +210 X -$100 Giants +5.5 X -$100

Patriots at Redskins Patriots by 19.7 (29.0) 33-07 ✔ No Bet at -1200. (Take bet.) 0 Patriots -15.5 ✔ +$90.91

Jets at Eagles Eagles by 7.1 (10.4) 06-31 ✔ Jets +530 X -$100 Jets +13.5 X -$100

Buccaneers at Saints Saints by 2.7 (3.9) 24-31 ✔ Buccaneers +155 (No Bet) X -$100 Buccaneers +3.5 (No Bet) X -$100

Broncos at Chargers Chargers by 2.9 (4.2) 20-13 X Broncos +250 ✔ +$250 Broncos +6.5 ✔ +$90.91

Packers at Cowboys Packers by 2.7 (4.0) 34-24 ✔ Packers +165 ✔ +$165 Packers +3.5 ✔ +$90.91

Colts at Chiefs Chiefs by 9.0 (13.3) 19-13 X Colts +450 (No Bet.) ✔ +$450 Colts +11.0 (Take Chiefs.) ✔ +$90.91

Monday

Browns at FortyNiners FortyNiners by 4.7 (6.9) 03-31 ✔ No Bet at -190. (Take it.) 0 FortyNiners -3.5 ✔ +$90.91

PERFORMANCE

Week 5: 10-5-0      6-7-2 9-5-1

Overall: 52-25-1      29-42-7 34-28-16

     67.53%

     40.85%

54.84%

Values this week:      +$503.48 +$318.19

Total Values:      +$471.30 +$290.94

     /7200: +06.55% /6200: +04.69%

Thursday		MODEL	Pick / SCORE	MoneyLine	Point Spread
Rams	at Seahawks	Rams by 1.9 (2.8)	29-30 X	Rams +100 X -$100	Rams +1.0 Push 0
Sunday
Cardinals	at Bengals	Cardinals by 1.8 (2.6)	26-23 ✔	Cardinals +150 ✔ +$150	Cardinals +3.0 ✔ +$90.91
Falcons	at Texans	Texans by 10.7 (15.7)	32-53 ✔	Texans -230 ✔ +$43.48	Texans -5.0 ✔ +$90.91
Ravens	at Steelers	Ravens by 0.0 (0.1)	26-23 ✔	Steelers +165 X -$100	Steelers +3.5 ✔ +$90.91
Bills	at Titans	Titans by 0.4 (0.6)	14-07 X	Bills +145 ✔ +$145	Bills +3.0 ✔ +$90.91
Bears	at Raiders	Bears by 8.4 (12.4)	21-24 X	Bears -240 X -$100	Bears -6.0 X -$100
Jaguars	at Panthers	Panthers by 0.2 (0.3)	27-34 ✔	Jaguars +155 X -$100	Jaguars +3.5 X -$100
Vikings	at Giants	Vikings by 1.2 (1.8)	28-10 ✔	Giants +210 X -$100	Giants +5.5 X -$100
Patriots	at Redskins	Patriots by 19.7 (29.0)	33-07 ✔	No Bet at -1200. (Take bet.) 0	Patriots -15.5 ✔ +$90.91
Jets	at Eagles	Eagles by 7.1 (10.4)	06-31 ✔	Jets +530 X -$100	Jets +13.5 X -$100
Buccaneers	at Saints	Saints by 2.7 (3.9)	24-31 ✔	Buccaneers +155 (No Bet) X -$100	Buccaneers +3.5 (No Bet) X -$100
Broncos	at Chargers	Chargers by 2.9 (4.2)	20-13 X	Broncos +250 ✔ +$250	Broncos +6.5 ✔ +$90.91
Packers	at Cowboys	Packers by 2.7 (4.0)	34-24 ✔	Packers +165 ✔ +$165	Packers +3.5 ✔ +$90.91
Colts	at Chiefs	Chiefs by 9.0 (13.3)	19-13 X	Colts +450 (No Bet.) ✔ +$450	Colts +11.0 (Take Chiefs.) ✔ +$90.91
Monday
Browns	at FortyNiners	FortyNiners by 4.7 (6.9)	03-31 ✔	No Bet at -190. (Take it.) 0	FortyNiners -3.5 ✔ +$90.91
				PERFORMANCE
			Week 5: 10-5-0	6-7-2	9-5-1
			Overall: 52-25-1	29-42-7	34-28-16
			67.53%	40.85%	54.84%
			Values this week:	+$503.48	+$318.19
			Total Values:	+$471.30	+$290.94
				/7200: +06.55%	/6200: +04.69%