Top Football Ranking

Updated February 2, 2020

     Betting results are the net based on 16 possible $100 bets each from betting lines posted Tuesday/Thursday morning.
     Random strategy would be expected to be -5.00%. (Efficient market.)
     Positive for the year, but just barely.
     The p-value for > 0 shows it is hard to beat Vegas with cost included. These are not significant at about 60%-level. The p-value > Random shows that at about 85%-level the program is beating the market (Vegas) line.

Winline is positive, +01.16%.
p-value of > 0: 0.4394
p-value of > Random: 0.2094

Spread is positive, +02.22%.
p-value of > 0: 0.3876
p-value of > Random: 0.1386

Super Bowl
          PickEm:   0-0-0
          WinLine: 0-0-0     +$0
          Spread:     0-0-0     +$0
          538 NFL: +xxx.x points, #xxxx, xx%'ile.

Conference
          PickEm:   2-0-0
          WinLine: 0-2-0     -$200
          Spread:     0-1-1     -$100
          538 NFL: +786.5 points, #371, 98%'ile.

Divisional
          PickEm:   3-1-0
          WinLine: 1-2-1     -$177.01
          Spread:     1-1-2     -$9.09
          538 NFL: +740.3 points, #398, 97%'ile.

Wild Card
          PickEm:   2-2-0
          WinLine: 2-2-0     +$208.33
          Spread:     1-2-1     -$109.09
          538 NFL: +737.1 points, #403, 97%'ile.

WEEK 17
          PickEm:   10-6-0
          WinLine: 7-8-1     -$473.98
          Spread:     5-8-3     -$345.45
          538 NFL: +787.9 points, #481, 97%'ile.

WEEK 16
          PickEm:   9-7-0
          WinLine: 10-6-0     +$205.10
          Spread:     8-6-1     +$128.28
          538 NFL: +772.8 points, #485, 97%'ile.

WEEK 15
          PickEm:   9-7-0
          WinLine: 9-6-1     +$52.24
          Spread:     9-6-1     +$218.19
          538 NFL: +745.5 points, #424, 97%'ile.

WEEK 14
          PickEm:   12-4-0
          WinLine: 8-5-3     +$310.04
          Spread:     7-6-3     +$36.37
          538 NFL: +700.2 points, #333, 98%'ile.

WEEK 13
          PickEm:   10-6-0
          WinLine: 10-6-0     +$716.81
          Spread:     11-3-2     +$700.01
          538 NFL: +602.6 points, #496, 96%'ile.

WEEK 12
          PickEm:   10-4-0
          WinLine: 6-7-1     -$242.66
          Spread:     5-7-2     -$245.45
          538 NFL: +603.4 points, #812, 94%'ile.

WEEK 11
          PickEm:   11-3-0
          WinLine: 4-9-1     -$711.73
          Spread:     5-7-2     -$245.45
          538 NFL: +518.6 points, #711, 94%'ile.

WEEK 10
          PickEm:   7-6-0
          WinLine: 5-7-1     -$224.55
          Spread:     4-7-2     -$336.36
          538 NFL: +412.2 points, #505, 96%'ile.

WEEK 9
          PickEm:   8-6-0
          WinLine: 7-6-1     +$12.03
          Spread:     6-7-1     -$154.54
          538 NFL: +496.1 points, #576, 95%'ile.

WEEK 8
          PickEm:   12-3-0
          WinLine: 9-4-2     -$172.33
          Spread:     8-5-2     +$227.28
          538 NFL: +493.8 points, #306, 97%'ile.

WEEK 7
          PickEm:   8-6-0
          WinLine: 8-5-1     +$73.33
          Spread:     8-6-0     +$127.28
          538 NFL: +341.2 points, #154, 99%'ile.

WEEK 6
          PickEm:   12-2-0
          WinLine: 7-5-2     +$437.62
          Spread:     8-5-1     +$227.28
          538 NFL: +268.9 points, #126, 99%'ile.

WEEK 5
          PickEm:   10-5-0
          WinLine: 6-7-2     +$503.48
          Spread:     9-5-1     +$318.19
          538 NFL: +201.1 points, #578, 94%'ile.

WEEK 4
          PickEm:   9-6-0
          WinLine: 6-7-2     +$635.00
          Spread:     5-4-6     +$54.55
          538 NFL: +179.3 points, #986, 89%'ile.

WEEK 3
          PickEm: 11-5-0
          WinLine: 6-9-1     -$127.97
          Spread:     6-7-3     -$154.54
          538 NFL: +183.3 points, #2082, 75%'ile.

WEEK 2
          PickEm: 11-5-0
          WinLine: 6-9-1     -$48.57
          Spread:     6-5-5     +$45.46
          538 NFL: +96.9 points, #3858, 48%'ile.

WEEK 1
          PickEm: 11-4-1
          WinLine: 5-10-1     -$490.64
          Spread:     8-7-1        +$27.28
          538 NFL: +53.5 points, #4676, 23%'ile.

WINTIME

WINTIME is a new metric for evaluating, ranking, and rating sports teams. WINTIME is highly correlated with margin-of-victory. Perhaps a picture is worth a thousand words. (Data from 2017 season)